Jennlog

I was in Canada over the holidays and hoped to keep my Curve off the entire trip so I wouldn’t be charged the infamous AT&T International roaming fees.

I happened to need to turn on my Curve twice on one day to look some old email and negotiate a meeting place over several voice calls. The bill for this extravagance was over $30 + “regulatory” fees. Voice was $0.79/minute and god knows what they were charging per byte for data.

I dream of the day when handheld wireless IP devices will enable an international traveller to send and receive voice calls and send and receive data without the telcos smiling at you while they explain how they absolutely must charge you $0.79 a minute to transport less than 4 kb/s around the neighborhood or they’d go out of business.

A new network protocol for authenticating/authorizing wireless IP roaming devices is likely needed before cell phones can be replaced. Requiring a person to actively submit credentials every time their VoIP device passes between wifi networks will drive even the most technical savvy device owner over the edge so the protocol would have to be passive and seamless. This protocol needs to be aware at both the network layer (Registry based DHCP on steroids?) and at the application layer (SIP? H.323? Something new?) and tied to distributed subscription access-aggregation service.

With such a solution in place, taking into account administration expenses and roaming deal overheads, a VoIP-aware international IP hotspot aggregator could be profitable while making it worthwhile for hotspot owners to participate in such a service.

This week, NetFlix and Apple launched online film distribution services and Time Warner Cable reluctantly announced their metered Internet trial. In context, this was a turning point in the evolution of home entertainment.

The future of film and television is definitely going to rely upon the world of IP networks. Between the NetFlix and Apple services, consumers will begin to relate to films and other visual media online, just as consumers learned to relate to television through a box of buttons when cable services began to dot communities.

Speaking of cable, Time Warner has set itself up to be the first sacrificial lamb of the MSO infrastructure evolution in response to the growing amount of bandwidth used by its subscribers. In my previous post on the Time Warner experiment I suggested that TW customers should bail on their broadband provider. In the near-term, I still suggest they find more lubricated pastures (I.e. unmetered, unlimited service).

As media products evolve to an online state, the infrastructure that delivers media must also evolve or become inoperable or obsolete. Cable companies really operate two competing video infrastructures:

1. The original RF-based television feed of 24/7 content pushed into the homes over 300+ simultaneous channels, and;
2. A newer IP-based “Broadband Internet” connection facilitating the pull of attention-derived content into the home.

The old television feed infrastructure is not optimized for the realities of an “A La Carte” attention-derived media. It’s interesting to note that even with 300+ channels of content available the average american television viewer rarely strayed outside of their five favorite television channels to view programming.

1990’s Cable Spectrum

Clearly, cable as a business and an incumbent infrastructure is no longer efficient or relevant and must eventually be sacrificed as consumers adapt to Internet-based media delivery.

The cable evolution has been helped along by federal mandates declaring the end to analog-based television signals. Cable operators have been repurposing their Analog spectrum into their digital tiers

2000’s Cable Spectrum

In the next decade, Cable operators will need to abandon their philosophy of spectrum slice segmentation that dates back to the early RF days of television and open their entire operation to packet-based organization.

2010’s Cable Spectrum

Cable has a phenomenal amount of bandwidth capacity deployed, the challenge for them is adopting a consumer-friendly business model and organizing and optimizing the capacity going forward.

Cable will eventually adopt “metering” industry-wide, but as they open their entire networks to IP, one will hope that they will learn how to productize “unlimited” and “capped” services once again.

(As a comparison, here is the typical incumbent telephone carrier network spectrum allocation:

1990’s Telephone Spectrum

Unlike the fiber coax hybrid-based cable networks, telephone companies rely upon a mesh+star configuration of fiber and twisted copper. The available spectrum of twisted copper is far lower than coax, influenced by the frequency footprint of the legacy service of the telephone company, voice communication — exponentially narrower when compared to video. This is why telephone companies are the champions of fiber to the curb [fttc] and fiber to the home [ftth] initiatives.)

Yesterday, Apple officially launched their new iTunes Video Rental service.

The film rental service is built upon the existing content management and distribution system that facilitates the sale of audio and video products across the Apple CE line, including a newly untethered and upgraded IP-based AppleTV set top product. I presume it will also work on iTunes for Windows.

Is this service revolutionary? No. Evolutionary? Yes.

Cable operators in the Americas and Europe have offered VOD-based rentals for almost a decade (in Asia, almost two decades), but have not expanded their focus beyond their prized set-top box — some have started developing parallel stream-based services on the Internet, but there is no cohesive product relationship. Cable-delivered services have started and ended at the television set.

In relation to online services, Disney’s MovieBeam and film industry venture Movielink both offered film rentals by all the major studios in the same price range as the new Apple service, but their products were not very accessible and alienated consumers.

Apple’s agreement with Hollywood enables iTunes to rent movies 30 days following a DVD releases. This is presumably done for the same reasons that Hollywood fragments their DVD distribution amongst several region codes.

Apple operates the world’s most popular electronic media distribution service and is clearly the manufacturer of the world’s most popular portable media players. This dominance feeds directly into the adoption of their iTunes audio and video manager/player, compatible with both Microsoft Windows and Apple’s own OS X — and closes the loop on a single-provider “fully integrated” Virtual Walled Garden Overlay.

Apple will be the first effective solution to bring wide-scale video from the Internet to television. On the other hand, YouTube and its clones that drive traffic through novelty and news will not escape the immediacy of the social media-driven browser universe — regardless of mobile and television-focused efforts.

While this product will be the service to popularize electronic film rentals to the general public, other services such as the unlimited electronic streaming delivery products from Netflix will equally share this vanguard, but in a more constrained and restricted manner.

After an agnostic media management and delivery infrastructure reaches the edges of the Internet, Hollywood will pull back control over their media and begin to pursue direct delivery of media themselves

Hollywood has a history of taking control of media delivery channels that cross over the boundary from experimental to mass market — acquiring their video tape manufacturers and distributors. Affiliate television stations are finding the territorial relevance that solidified their existence in the traditional television delivery value chain has been erased by the global and direct reach of the Internet enabling the parent networks to deliver television directly to consumers through websites.

Eventually, the proprietary FairPlay format of Apple will also be superseded by a consumer-friendly format, popularized by consumer media generation — enabling/allowing consumers to integrate their own personal media with acquired media across consumer-chosen devices.

Apple’s iTunes Rentals service is evolutionary — as a stepping stone. It’s not going to kill DVDs or DVD rental services because the majority of the movie viewing public won’t immediately change their habits to pay apple $3-6 to watch a movie.

Apple will see the world to the time when Hollywood (and all media producers) will be have the capability to deliver media directly into consumer’s lives with commodity technology, infrastructure and players with flexible billing/usage models allowing for purchase, rental, subscription, advertising-support, gifting, freebies, exchanges and situations not thought of yet.

If you read a lot of blogs, you have been inundated by pixel-to-pixel coverage of the annual gadgetfest happening right now in overpriced and highly annoying Las Vegas.

A couple my CES badges from years past

When I started attending CES, a show created and managed by the consumers electronics manufacturers association (CEA), it was largely a “Buyer’s Show” produced so retailers and integrators could hang out near shouts of “WHEEL OF FORTUNE” and do some deals that would affect what the general public would find in their local stores for the next calendar year.

As the years went on, the number of retailers shrank as Walmart square footage grew — and in 2008, the majority of electronics are purchased in “Big Box” stores like Best Buy and Circuit City. The content industry changed too — as the digital and Internet-delivered media avalanche landed quicker than you could say “ubiquity”.

There will always be a room full of neon tube lit Ferraris and their 400 speakers at CES but virtually every other consumer electronic category has evolved to the point where you wouldn’t recognize them as they are now, fifteen years ago — let alone four decades ago when CES began.

The CES of today attracts a very different crowd than the CES I remember. The quickest growing classes of attendee fall within the prosumer and fanboy group. (the bleeding edge of early adopters who want to own or “review” the latest and greatest toys).

Is CES at the crossroads of turning into a direct-market show, where the retailer and integrator filters are removed from the value chain? Is it morphing into a new entity all together like Comdex evolved from PCs to Internet (before imploding) and NAB has survived and stayed relevant from RF through the inclusion of Cable and now IP.

I don’t think CES or NAB or any of the other shows quite represent what I’d like to see in a Media-Communications-Content-Electronics show today — looking forward to a “Whole Communications Show and Conference” sometime in the future.

Update: My next post will share some ideas I have on what the “Whole Communications Show and Conference” would be like.

I’ve been wondering how long it would take the autodialers that hang-up with no message to fill up my voice mail to the point where it would stop accepting messages. So last week, I decided to just let them accumulate.

Apparently, it is 62.

Minitel image from Wikipedia: Tieum

Firstly, I can’t call it a “Kindle” because it sounds like something you might need to start a fire. Doohickey sounds just right.

Amazon has decided to bring this $399 mobile eBook device to market with a modified iPod sales model — sell the device, sell content for the device at a nice iMall.

However, there is a pretty clear divergence. Amazon frees the device from requiring a tether (positive and negative points here).

Positive: Rather than requiring a PC to sync content the device from the iMall, the Doohickey uses a nice wireless phone connection that silently dials home to Amazon any time it needs something.

Negative: iTunes gives you a local copy of the asset you have purchased (or licensed, to use the media industry term). iTunes makes it easy for you to burn a copy of your movie or music so that you may listen to it in your car, on a stereo or wherever. You can also burn that CD back into iTunes without the Apple DRM, allowing you to use the DRM-free content on any device, anywhere you wish. Amazon’s iMall allows you to download your AmazonBook onto any other Amazon Doohickey, anytime you wish.

There are no plans to open up the proprietary Amazon eBook format, so if you wish to revisit your current AmazonBook in the future, you will need a Doohickey.

Actually, now I’ve spent all this time researching the Doohickey. The Doohickey is closer to this Minitel Terminal from France than an iPod. It has all the words you may ever need, but you’ll need the terminal and a few francs to retrieve them.

Seven reasons why the world should not feel sorry for the owners of bricked and/or broken modified iPhones.

1. If they didn’t like the applications provided on the iPhone they shouldn’t own an iphone. They should have bought another phone.
2. If they didn’t think the applications provided on the iPhone were worth $599/$499/$399/$299 they shouldn’t own an iPhone. They should have bought another phone.
3. If they didn’t like a two year contract with AT&T they shouldn’t own an iphone. They should have bought another phone.
4. If they wanted a portable, unlocked phone — the iPhone was never marketed as an open, portable device. They should have bought another phone.
5. If they “unlocked” their iPhone by installing “unauthorized” firmware, it is not Apple’s responsibility to reverse-engineer compatibility with this firmware in later firmware updates. They should not be surprised if their phone is now bricked due to a hung/incomplete firmware flash — this is the cost of playing “Hackerboy”
6. If they tweaked the iPhone’s OS to create a “user land” to install “third party” applications, they should not be upset when Apple releases a new OS update without the file descriptors linked to the unauthorized “user land”. They should not be surprised if their phone no longer has a “user land” — this is the cost of playing “Hackerboy”
7. Apple told everyone that the iPhone was “closed” and would only be compatible with web-based web browser-delivered applications. If they wanted non-apple native applications, they should have bought another phone

I decided not to buy the iPhone due to more than one of the above reasons. It’s bizarre to read all the stories about “Evil Apple” knowing that Apple has no responsibility to preserve “hacks” to their consumer devices. Some devices are released as “hacker toys” with the pseudo-approval of their manufacturer (the Tivo is such a device). The iPhone was never assumed to be such a device.

I will continue to dream about using my ideal portable communications device some time in the future.

The above statement was said by Mark Cuban at the CTAM (Cable Television Association for Marketing) Summit. Multichannel News reports he also declared, “The Internet’s dead. It’s over” and states that the only “new application” to emerge is YouTube.

Now, I realize that Mark was in a room full of cable industry execs and it would seem a likely place for him (or anyone) to announce that the Internet is dead and cable supreme, but what was he thinking?

There are dozens of new services using peer-to-peer technologies — like Joost, Grid Networks and Vuze to name just three. Pre-Internet, these services would not have been allowed to exist in a cable environment unless:

1. the peer points existed on closed cable-owned and operated boxes
2. used software owned and installed by the cable company
3. only transfered media content that the cable company allowed subscribers to see (i.e. was compensated by media owners to deliver to subscribers)

There are dozens of new services that enable interactivity in the television-like world of broadband video distribution, for example:

1. viddler (timeline tags — your own personal MST3K)
2. brightcove (create a “channel”, monetize the channel and analyze statistics)
3. Digg Video (influence the video zeitgeist)
4. podcasting (be the tv)

Cable has done a really poor job of growing beyond their passive media delivery roots (of replicating the original passive over-the-air public broadcast in a private wire-bound spectrum).

It’s not coincidental that the number of “Interactive Television” startups exploded simultaneously to the acceptance and popularization of IP, the Internet and WWW as a communications and interactive media. The cable industry facilitated the creation of ITV Hype 2.0 (in the early 90s, ITV Hype 1.0 didn’t go so well) because if they didn’t they would have lost even more ad dollars and eyeballs to the Internet.

We’ve seen ten years since the mainstreaming of the Internet (and ITV Hype 2.0) and the open Internet is well into “Web 2.0″ while cable is still struggling with delivering the promise of “Interactivity 1.0″ (beyond pointing and clicking a remote to select a PPV on-demand movie — yay interactive tv!).

On the other hand, if Multichannel News misquoted Mark and his statement was restricted to the distribution and use of passive high definition television — he is correct, the Internet doesn’t enable the sustained distribution of 19.2mbps MPEG2 transport streams to the home in 99.99% of the world’s cities.

But the number and quality of pixels displayed on a television set does not equate to the sum total of the visual media experience. At the 1999 National Association of Broadcasters show, my team proved the acceptable visual media experience is flexible and will adapt to low quality if the subject matter is exclusive, informative and/or compelling.

The Internet allows for a much wider variety of exclusive, informative and compelling media. The Internet delivers this media to an ever increasing number of devices and network architectures.

Cable offers… Pay Per View… to your television.

I took my 17″ powerbook into the 29th Street Apple store a couple months ago because the LCD was loose and images on the screen had a habit of jumping as I would move the LCD up and down — Oh, and it was also the last day of the computer’s Applecare policy.

When I received it back, the sales/genius said they had tightened the LCD and tightened the connections. The only problem was the screen was as jumpy as ever. I should have been a little more “forceful” in explaining to the sales/genius that the jumpiness had not been fixed before leaving the store.

The end result is that my 17″ Powerbook gets more entertaining every day:

The Apple iTartan

The powerbook now needs to express its inner tartan with annoying frequency and the time it takes me to convince it that we must work on non-tartany stuff together increases with every episode.

I have a dual G5 desktop. but that sits in my office and doesn’t work so well on the hammock. And I’ve given my 12″ powerbook to my mom. So that leaves me with the 17″ as the computer on which I’m most comfortable doing my work (I am writing this post on the 17″ right now, actually).

I’m afraid I’ll be joining the MacBook generation when this computer will no longer play nice.

All the hype about Apple’s iPhone has me thinking about a device so cool and useful that I would do just about anything to own one. These are the features such a device would have:

Form factor

1. The device would be about the size of an iPhone and weigh no more than 4oz.

Interface

1. A high-definition screen, larger than 240×320 pixels — preferably 480×720 at 180dpi or higher. It would work in both portrait and landscape orientations.
2. There would be on-screen virtual keys and also connect to a bluetooth keyboard.
3. It would accept voice commands, including voice dialing.
4. It would be capable of connecting to a bluetooth headset
5. The video could be output into an external monitor (think airlines / desktops / tvs)
6. The OS and Applications windowing API would allow for slick and reactive experience.

Memory and Storage

1. There would be at least 2GB of RAM
2. There would be at least 20GB of stateful storage (disk or solid state).
3. There should also be a USB2.0 or Firewire port for external storage
4. There should also be an API available to connect to WebFS or some other remote IP-based storage service.

Power

1. The battery should be removable, with spares sold as accessories.
2. Battery life should average 8-10 hours, regardless of voice or video use.
3. There should be modular mains connectivity for worldwide AC options.
4. There should be an option for Car, Boat and Plane DC power connectivity.

Multimedia

1. There would be a camera with a resolution of at least 2MP. This would be used for taking photos or capturing video.
2. It should be able to receive streaming video from files or broadcast
3. It should be able to address my home media server(s) through a tethered sync or from any IP network
4. there would be a stereo microphone.
5. There would be sound input (line and mic) and output jacks (line and headphone).
6. There would be a hardware OpenGL 3D render engine.
7. There would be hardware H.264/MPEG 4 encoding and decoding. A FPGA/Media ASIC for future codec compatibility

Applications

   Productivity

1. Email should be compatible with IMAP(S), POP3(S) and Exchange over IP
2. Calendar should sync over IP with Exchange, .Mac, Yahoo or Google calendars and also have the option to sync via tether to my local Outlook/iCal
3. My address/phone book, notes and lists should also sync over IP and/or tether.
4. I should be able to plug in a GPS USB key and tie location into meetings/events in my calendar
5. There should be an option to perform the above securely (OpenSSL, MSFT VPN and Cisco VPN compatible)
6. The geek in me also wishes an SSH client — because my productivity often relies upon a command line.

   Internet

1. There should be a full featured web browser with Javascript, Flash and a full Java Runtime Environment
2. There should be freedom for developers to develop for the device platform, release open source applications or commercial applications as they desire
3. There should be freedom for consumers to use open source or commercial applications upon the device as they desire
4. There should be an open API that Internet software can utilize to plug into the camera, microphones, USB and A/V ports.

   Voice Calling

1. 100% Voice over IP.
2. Roaming and Long Distance constraints and rules would not be tied to the device.
3. The phone number or network address should be temporarily or permanently assignable to other IP-based devices

   Video Calling/Conferencing/Receiving

1. 100% Video over IP.
2. Compatible with other IP-based video calling and conferencing standards as they are adopted
3. Compatible (and addressable at no extra cost) with my IP Video Television services and subscriptions

Network Plan

1. Membership/Subscription/Identification/Access Control should be performed and verified at the personal level rather than the device level. I should be able to replace my IP Communications device freely without pre-notifying the network operator and having to negotiate new device credentials.
2. The communications device will never ever register itself on a cell/mobile operator’s voice network. Ideally, there will be no “Home Network” registration required and therefore no need to roam.
3. The network service will actually be a network access aggregator who, through relationships with WiMax and WiFi network operators, will ensure that I have a near-seemless worldwide access experience at a flat rate price.
4. There is no mandatory application or service feature bundling requirement from the network operator or aggregator. I am free to form application delivery relationships with anyone I wish, worldwide (including VOIP and Television).
5. I am free to use any network-delivered applications or device-based features I wish without network owner/operator/aggregator interference.

Price

1. The base device MSRP should be US$700.00 or less.
2. The network subscription fee should be US$100.00/mo. or less.
3. Alternately, network subscription fees could be subsidized by ads or traceable in-network affiliate-like purchase agreements or gifting by other services
4. Application subscriptions should be US$20.00/mo. or less — or ad supported, or free.